来源：北京周报

【编者按】：2011年至2015年，中国将进入第十二个五年发展规划期。在后金融危机时代，中国经济如何确保持续增长？“十二五”期间中国经济将走向何方？带着这些问题，本刊记者兰辛珍、于淑均采访了清华大学公共管理学院教授、中国科学院-清华大学国情研究中心主任胡鞍钢博士。
 
《北京周报》：请您谈谈的国内背景？
胡鞍钢：“十二五”时期中国仍将处于发展的黄金时期，“新五化”（指新型工业化、新型城镇化、知识信息化、基础设施现代化、全球经济一体化）的加速发展，它们之间相互需求拉动，又相互供给支撑，成为中国高速全面发展的五大动力。中国经济仍将保持较快增长，潜在增长率在8%-9%之间。而且金融危机对中国的影响有限，目前来看，这次金融危机给中国的经济发展带来暂时的困难，但不会改变中国经济增长的长期趋势。通过这场危机，中国经济应对外部冲击的能力大幅提升。
“十二五”时期也是中国向科学发展模式转变的关键时期。遏制人与自然矛盾，成为突出挑战。全球气候变化大大地改变了中国发展的自然环境，我国是世界上自然灾害最为严重的国家之一，异常气候频繁大面积发生，自然灾害、环境灾害更为多发，不断地冲击正常的经济发展和人民生命财产安全，成为未来发展最大的限制因素。
调节收入分配格局成为重点。目前富者愈富、贫者所得有限的两极分化状况，已经成为中国面临的严峻挑战，“十二五”期间能否扭转这一趋势，将成为维持社会公平正义、维护社会稳定、扩大消费需求的关键所在。
在这一期间，中国社会矛盾将有所缓和。进入中等收入阶段，不同社会群体利益更加多元化，各类社会矛盾会增加并凸显，但随着社会治理能力增强，公共服务和基本社会保障覆盖率不断扩大，坚持“以人为本”的科学发展观，构建社会主义和谐社会，从总体上看，社会矛盾尤其是发展过程中产生的矛盾会有所缓解。
 
《北京周报》：“十二五”时期的中国面临怎样的国际环境？
胡鞍钢：进入“十二五”时期，和平、发展（特别是绿色发展）、合作（特别是绿色合作）、科技革命（特别是绿色科技）依然是当今时代的潮流。国际环境总体上对中国发展仍是十分难得的战略机遇期，有利条件多于不利条件，发展空间越来越多，发展余地也越来越大。与此同时，国际环境的不确定性、不稳定性、不安全性在增多。
第一，全球进入后金融危机时代。2008年下半年以来全球金融危机，出现了经济与贸易负增长，2010年在中国等新兴经济体的带动下开始复苏，避免了世界经济大萧条的悲剧。“十二五”期间，世界经济和贸易进入恢复性增长期，发达国家仍然处于较低增长，发展中国家重新进入高增长，中国扮演着世界经济、贸易和投资增长发动机的角色。
第二，全球政治经济格局进入调整期。从20世纪90年代以来，全球经济增长不平衡性更加明显，以中国、印度等发展中人口大国的快速增长，并超过发达国家增长率，引起世界经济格局的重大变化。根据OECD最新报告（2010年5月），1990年OECD国家占世界经济总量（GDP，PPP）的比重为62%，到2000年下降为60%，平均每年下降0.2个百分点。特别是此次国际金融危机重创了美欧日等发达国家，加速了他们经济实力相对衰落的进程，出现了前所未有的世界财富大转移（Shifting Wealth），非OECD国家迅速增长，其中以中国和印度为代表的世界人口大国群体性崛起，对国际经济格局产生了广泛和深远的影响。到2010年OECD国家占世界经济总量比重下降为51％，平均每年下降0.9个百分点；已经形成了南北“五五开”的新格局。今后OECD国家占世界GDP的比重持续下降，而非OECD国家的比重持续上升。预计到2030年，OECD国家占世界经济比重将进一步下降到43%，而非OECD国家比重上升到57%。
相应的，全球政治格局也出现了大变动、大调整。多极化趋势进一步发展。美国依然是世界上唯一的超级大国，但是全球事务独家治理已经“心有余而力不足”，不得不更多地与其它大国主动开展合作，分享国际事务的领导权。在国际金融危机爆发之际，二十国集团成为国际社会进行全球性事务对话协商和协调宏观经济政策主要平台，加强了新兴经济体在全球经济治理的发言权。与此同时，全球公共品供给不足问题更为突出。全球一体化进一步深入发展，却缺乏有效的全球治理结构，这就使得世界各国所需的全球性的各类公共产品既存在严重供应不足的“囚徒困境”。
能源、资源安全挑战依然严峻，全球市场体系不确定性增强；全球粮食安全形势趋于缓和，但是局部地区供给形势可能恶化；全球公共安全卫生威胁进一步加大，信息安全问题更为突出。尤其是全球气候变暖趋势进一步加剧，成为最严峻的挑战。
第三，这将是中国与世界关系的重大转变期。中国经济实力显著提高，成为世界经济第二大国，也成为世界经济新的最大的增长发动机，按购买力平价法，中国对世界GDP增长贡献率在30%以上，按汇率法，则占20%以上（见表3）；我国贸易实力居世界前列，为出口贸易第一大国，进口贸易第二大国，成为世界贸易新的增长发动机；中国迅速成为世界第一大外汇储备国，世界新的外国直接投资国；吸引“中资”将成为世界各国政府最主要的外资政策，而极大地拓展了中国发展的全球空间和投资领域，使GDP和GNP同步增长；我国科技实力迅速提高，成为世界第二科技实力大国，国际科技论文及引用数、本国居民申请国际专利数、高新技术出口、R&D支出等指标居世界位次进一步上升，为2020年创建创新型国家奠定更高的基础；中国在国际舞台上发挥愈来愈大的作用，并成为全球治理的重要领导者之一。
与此同时，中国也成为世界能源消费和生产、电力消费、石油进口、污水排放、二氧化碳、二氧化硫排放第一大国，成为世界“众矢之的”，发展模式的转变将面临着更大的国际压力，这也决定中国必须选择“绿色发展”模式，还要为人类做出更大的绿色贡献。
 
《北京周报》：根据你的研究，“十二五”规划应该达到哪些主要目标？
胡鞍钢：“十二五”规划要实现八大主要发展目标：
宏观经济平稳运行。国内生产总值年均增长7.5%左右，城镇调查失业率控制在7%以内，新增城镇就业和转移农业劳动力各4000万人，价格总水平基本稳定，财政收入和国际收支基本平衡。
产业结构优化升级。加快发展现代服务业，服务业增加值占国内生产总值比重和服务业就业人员占全社会就业人员比重分别提高3个和4个百分点。全面创新能力明显增强，高技术产业及服务业增加值占国内生产总值比重提高4个百分点，本国居民发明专利授权量和国际科学论文被引用数大幅度增长。支持一批拥有自主知识产权和知名品牌、具有国际竞争力的企业。
可持续发展能力明显增强。资源利用效率大幅度提高，单位国内生产总值能源消耗减少20%，可再生能源比重明显上升，减少煤炭消费比重，增加清洁高效利用煤炭比例；单位生产总值用水量下降30%，耕地保有量保持在1.2亿公顷；生态环境恶化趋势有效遏制，森林覆盖率达到22%，碳汇量比2010年增加约0.6亿吨二氧化碳；进一步改良草地，治理退化、沙化、碱化草地和荒漠化土地，主要污染物（指化学需氧量、二氧化硫）排放总量减少10%，重点城市空气质量、重点水流域环境质量明显改善；控制温室气体排放取得明显成效，单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放量比2010年减少20%以上；加强综合减灾能力建设，因自然灾害造成的死亡人数和直接经济损失占GDP比例明显下降（小于1.5%）。
基本公共服务覆盖城乡居民。绝对贫困现象基本消除，大幅度减少农村贫困人口，不安全饮用水人口基本消除。现代国民教育体系根伟完善，全民学习、终身学习型社会几基本建立，全面普及学前教育，国民入学时平均预期受教育年限提高到13年。公共卫生和医疗服务体系比较健全，人人享有基本医疗卫生服务，社会保障体系更为健全，城镇基本医疗保险达到全覆盖，新型农村基本养老保险覆盖率提高到50%以上，大力发展残疾人事业和老年服务体系（目前全国有各类残疾人8300万，占全国总人口6.34%）。防灾减灾能力进一步增强，社会治安和安全生产状况明显好转。
进入世界高人类发展行列。城镇居民人均可支配收入和农村居民人均纯收入分别年均增长7%以上，城乡居民生活质量和消费结构明显改善。消费需求对经济拉动能力增强，居民收入占国民总收入的比重有所提高，居民消费率稳步提高，人口出生时平均预期寿命提高到74岁。人类发展指数大于0.84。
城乡区域发展更加协调。社会主义新农村建设取得更大尽展，城镇人口比重明显提高。城乡、区域间人均收入差距扩大的趋势得到有效遏制，城乡、区域间基本公共服务水平差距明显缩小，城乡、区域协调互动发展机制和主体功能区布局初步形成。
社会主义市场经济体制更加完善。行政管理、国有事业、财税等领域的改革和制度建设取得突破，形成统一开放、竞争有序的现代市场体系，各类生产要素市场更加完善，完善反映市场供求关系、资源稀缺程度、环境损害成本的生产要素和资源价格形成机制，基本形成现代社会信用体系。
社会主义政治建设和文化建设取得新进展。公民政治参与有序扩大，提高农村村民自治和民主管理水平，扩大城市居民委员会直接选举覆盖面，2015年达到75%以上。国家各项工作法治化程度提高。社会主义意识形态的吸引力和凝聚力增强，良好品德道德风尚成为社会主流。振兴文化产业，不断提高文化产业占国民经济的比重。和谐文化、民族文化建设取得明显进展，文化创新有效推进，对外文化交流贸易不断扩大。
 
《北京周报》：与“十一五”相比，“十二五”发展指标有什么特点？
胡鞍钢：“十二五”规划主要指标共24个，比“十一五”增加2个。具体来说，有如下特点：
第一，延续和创新性相结合。“十二五”规划编制主要强调对“十一五”的思路具有延续性，同时又根据发展的新形势进行再创新和调整，因此我们建议有9个保留指标，6个调整指标，9个新增指标，新增指标主要集中在公共服务、资源环境、人们生活等领域。
第二，公共服务指标为主，经济指标为辅，以反映政府职能的重大变化和转型。
第三，约束性指标为主，预期性指标为辅，以反映政府强化公共服务的责任。
第四，主动与国际接轨。如采用人类发展指标，作为实现小康社会的最重要标志等。
第五，均为量化指标。这些指标的特点是：可观测、可定量、可比较，可评估，有明确的时限。
此外，我认为“十二五”时期我们应该进一步淡化和减少经济指标，进一步强化和增加绿色发展指标，建立绿色发展政绩考核体系。
 
《北京周报》：为完成“十二五”经济目标需要采取哪些措施？
胡鞍钢：国民经济又好又快发展的关键是转变经济发展方式，促进经济增长由主要靠投资出口拉动向依靠消费、投资、出口协调拉动转变，由主要依靠工业特别是重工业带动向依靠第一、第二、第三产业协同带动转变，由主要依靠增加物质资源消耗向主要依靠科技进步劳动者素质提高、管理创新转变。
首先是产业结构优化升级。
一要加快发展现代服务业。坚持市场化、产业化、社会化方向，大力发展主要面向生产者的服务业，细化深化专业分工，服务业增加值占国内生产总值比重和服务业就业人员占全社会就业人员比重提高，知识密集型服务业增加值占GDP的比重由2007年的10.6%提高到2015年的13%以上。
二要提升高技术处产业。促进产业聚集，提升国际竞争力，重点发展信息、生物、新材料、航空航天、海洋等产业；促进高技术产业由装配制造向自主研发、集成创新延伸，提高高技术产业增加值占GDP比重。支持一批拥有自主知识产权和知名品牌、具有国际竞争力的企业进入500强和世界2000强。
三要发展现代产业体系。大力推进信息化与工业化相融合，提升整体技术水平和综合实力，向产业深度发展，促进工业油大变强。
四要大力发展绿色产业。加快发展资源消耗低、环境污染少、经济效益好的绿色产业，培育新的经济增长点。严格限制几大高耗能产业（钢铁业、建材和非金属矿业、化工和石化业等）发展，加快淘汰落后产能，避免中国工业继续锁定在能源密集、碳排放密集、资本密集的产业上。
五要促进基础设施现代化。加快现代化基础设施建设，促进基础设施高速化、新型化、信息化，推进高速铁路网、高速公路网、天然气原油成品油管网、智能电网、信息网等五大现代化基础设施网络建设。
其次是建设创新型国家。
大力推进全面创新，在信息、生命、纳米、绿色能源、空间、海洋等领域超前部署，集中优势力量，加大投入力度，力争取得重大突破。
加快建设国家创新体系。国家大力支持、强化资助公共知识、基础研究、前沿技术研究和社会公益性科技研究。重点资助基础科学、交叉科学、前沿技术、重大装备制造、农业科技、节能减排、可再生能源、生态环境、人口健康等科技研究。
加快建立以企业为主体的技术创新体系。加快建立以企业为主体、市场为导向、产学研相结合的技术创新体系，形成自主创新的基本体制构架。加强企业创新主体地位，促进企业、科研机构、大学等建立研发联合体；大力发展知识产权产业，完善知识产权制度，健全技术标准体系；企业成为我国技术创新的主体，鼓励突破重大的关键性核心技术难点，支持企业通过原始创新、集成创新和引进消化吸收再创新，形成自主知识产权和自主品牌。
造就大批创新人才。大力培养国际一流科技尖子人才、国际级科学大师和科技领军人物。积极引进海外高层次人才，吸引上百万出国留学人员回国创业或为国服务。
促进绿色创新。与世界各国一起，发动兵参与一场新的绿色工业革命，带头进行绿色创新，积极应对全球气候变化，在作出知识贡献的同时，也作出绿色贡献。
三是提高开放型经济水平。
要加快转变外贸发展方式。优化出口结构，提高出口产品附加值，培育出口产品竞争新优势。支持具有优势的产品、劳动密集型产品、高科技产品出口，严控“两高一资”产品出口。扩大工程承包、设计咨询、技术转让、金融保险、国际运输、教育培训、信息技术、民族文化等服务贸易出口。扩大先进技术、关键设备及零部件和国内短缺的能源、原材料进口，促进资源进口多元化。
要积极稳定外需。支持扩大外贸市场，扩大传统优势产业销售市场，积极培育参与经济全球化的新的竞争优势，吧对外投资和扩大出口以及劳务输出结合起来，支持各类所有制企业“走出去”以带动出口。
要积极参与国际经济一体化。实现国内区域规划与国际区域经济合作对接。与各国发展双边、多边、经贸合作，积极参与多边贸易、投资规则制定，推动建立国际经济新秩序。实施自由贸易区战略，促进区域合作机制的形成。
要降低国际经济风险。降低出口贸易风险，完善出口信用保险政策，提高出口信用保险覆盖率。降低外汇储备风险，提高外汇资产的多元化水平。积极参与防范国际金融体系风险。扩大双边贸易货币互换协议范围，积极参与推动国际货币多元化进程。
四是促进区域协调发展。
实施区域发展总体战略。深入推进西部大开发，全面振兴东北地区等老工业基地，大力促进中部地区崛起，积极支持东部地区率先发展，形成各有特色、相互补充、相互带动的区域经济发展格局。加快推进形成主体功能区，形成若干带动力强、联系紧密的经济圈和经济带。
五是推进城乡一体化。
要积极发展现代农业，确保国家粮食安全和农产品有效供给；扩大公共财政覆盖农村范围，建设社会主义新农村；加快城乡一体化改革。
 
《北京周报》：您认为“十二五”时期中国的发展会有什么特征？
胡鞍钢：“十二五”时期中国仍处于社会主义初级阶段，人民日益增长的物质文化需要与相对落后的生产力之间的矛盾依然是社会主要矛盾，但呈现出一系列新的阶段性特征：
1、进入中等收入水平阶段。从发展水平来看，中国将从下中等收入国家跨入中等收入国家行列；按照购买力平价，中国人均GDP将超过世界平均水平，并总体上达到西欧国家上世纪60年代末和70年代初的水平。
2、进入高人类发展水平阶段。人类发展指标（HDI）是一个综合性指标，它包括经济、健康、教育三个方面。2008年中国的HDI为0.781，在177个国家中排名第81位，到2015年中国的HDI可达到0.84左右，进入高人类发展水平（HDI大于等于0.8）国家行列，排在世界前70位。
3、进入富裕型小康社会。在农村，2015年恩格尔系数将从2008年的43.7%降至37%左右，属于小康型向富裕型转变。在城镇，恩格尔系数由2008年的37.9%降至31%，从富裕型向更加富裕型转变。
4、进入少子化与老龄化社会。中国在相对较低收入水平条件下提前进入“少子化”和“老龄化”社会，出现人口发展不可持续的重大挑战。到2015年中国劳动年龄人口达到高峰值，接近10亿人，65岁以上老龄人口将增加1.3亿，占总人口的9.4%。2010年中国平局9.1个劳动年龄人口供养一个老人，到2015年平均7.6个劳动年龄人口供养一个老人。
 
Predictions for the Next Five Years

In 2011, China will kick off its 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15). Now, in this post-crisis era, how can the Chinese economy maintain sustainable growth? And where is the country headed in the next five years? With these questions in mind, Beijing Review reporters Lan Xinzhen and Yu Shujun interviewed Professor Hu Angang, Director of the Center for China Studies of Tsinghua University.
 

GREEN DEVELOPMENT: A worker processes factory sewage in Taiyuan Iron and Steel (Group) Co. Ltd. The sewage disposal equipment can recycle 55,000 tons of urban sewage (YAN YAN)
Beijing Review: Could you explain the domestic backdrop for the 12th Five-Year Plan?
Hu Angang: From 2011 to 2015, China will still be in its golden period of development. The fast trend for industrialization, urbanization, knowledge informationization, infrastructure modernization and economic globalization going on now are all inter-linked. They support and strengthen each other and are the five major forces driving China's development. The Chinese economy will continue to maintain relatively fast growth with a potential annual growth rate hitting 8-9 percent. The financial crisis has not swayed Chinese economic progress too much, although it has caused temporary difficulties. But this won't affect China's long-term economic growth trend. The crisis has in effect become strong evidence that China's ability to cope with external strikes has greatly improved over the years.
The 12th Five-Year Plan period is also a key period for China to shift its model of development to one with a scientific outlook. Global climate change has substantially changed the natural environment for China's development. China is one of the countries constantly hit by severe natural disasters. The frequent occurrence of bizarre climate and natural and environmental disasters that will constantly threaten normal economic development and people's lives will become the biggest obstacle for future development.
And adjusting income distribution will become another major task. The widening gap between the rich and the poor has posed a daunting challenge. Whether the gap can be narrowed or not directly affects social justice and stability, as well as the expansion of consumption demand.
Over the next five years, social conflicts will be mitigated. China will enter the middle-income era with more diversified interests of various social groups living side by side. With the government's enhanced ability to manage society, the social conflicts can be dealt with quickly and efficiently thanks to the expansion of public services and basic social security coverage.
What kind of international environment will China face during the 12th Five-Year Plan period?
During this period, peace, development (especially green development), cooperation (especially green cooperation), and scientific and technological progress (especially green science and technology) will remain as the trends of the time. Internationally, it is now a period of strategic opportunities for China's development, with the country facing more advantages than disadvantages. Meanwhile, uncertainties, and unstable and unsafe factors of the international environment are growing.
First, the world has entered the post-crisis era. The global financial crisis since the latter half of 2008 has led to negative growth in world trade and global economy. Now, the world economy is recovering, driven by a robust economic rally in emerging economies like China. A potential worldwide depression has all but been avoided. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the world economy and trade will enter a new period. Developed countries will continue to make progress slowly while developing countries regain their pre-crisis momentum. And now China is playing the role of the engine of global trade and world economic growth and investment.
Second, the global political and economic structure has entered a period of readjustment. Since the 1990s, the global economic unbalance has become more prominent, as mirrored in the fast growth in developing and heavily populated countries such as China and India. Their economic growth rates outpaced those of developed countries, which have led to substantial changes in the world economic pattern. According to the latest OECD (the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) report, OECD countries, mainly developed ones, accounted for 62 percent of the global GDP in 1990, and the rate dropped to 60 percent in 2000 with an annual decline of 0.2 percentage point. With the economies of Japan, America and Europe all but shattered by the crisis, global wealth has shifted with the rapid growth of non-OECD countries. The economic rise of countries like China and India has been profoundly influential on the global economic pattern. In 2010, the economic share of OECD economies is expected to decrease to 51 percent, with an annual decline of 0.9 percentage point. By 2030, if trends hold firm, the OECD countries' proportion in world economy will shrink to 43 percent, while the non-OECD countries rising to 57 percent.
The global political pattern has also undergone changes as multi-polarization has made significant progress. The United States is still the only super power, but is finding itself incapable of handling world affairs alone and has to cooperate with other major powers to share the leadership authority. After the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the G20 has become a major platform for the international community to conduct dialogue and negotiations on international affairs and to coordinate macroeconomic policies, which have enabled emerging economies to have a greater say in world economic governance.
CLEAN AND GREEN: The No.1 reactor of Ling'ao nuclear power plant operates at full capacity (XINHUA)
Energy and resource security challenges are still serious as uncertainties abound in the global market. Global food supply has gradually stabilized, but some places might face a deteriorating supply in the near future. And threats to global security, public health and information security have been on the rise, with global climate change becoming one of the most daunting challenges for all mankind.
Third, the next five years will be an important transition period for the relations between China and the world. With rising economic power, China will become the second largest economy in the world and the most important engine for global economic growth. Judging by purchasing power parity, China contributes more than 30 percent to global GDP growth, and by the currency exchange rate, China contributes 20 percent.
China is the biggest exporting country in the world, the second largest country for import trade, and a new source for overseas investment. Attracting Chinese investment will become a major foreign investment policy for the governments of various countries, and will greatly expand the investment space for China's development.
China's science and technology power will be greatly enhanced and the country will become the second largest science and technology power in the world. China will see increases in its ranks in terms of science and technology theses and citations, domestic residents' application for international patents, hi-tech exports, and research and development expenses—all will lay a solid foundation for China to meet its goal of building an innovation-oriented country by 2020. China will play a more and more important role in the global arena and will become one of the major leaders in global governance.
Meanwhile, China will become the biggest consumer of energy and also a butt of public attack in that it is the biggest discharger of sewage, carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emission. China must therefore focus on green development and make a greater contribution to the green movement sweeping the globe.
What kind of goals should China attain during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, according to your research?
China should maintain stable control over the macroeconomy. GDP growth will be maintained at an annual rate of around 7.5 percent and the urban unemployment rate be kept under 7 percent, creating 40 million jobs for urban residents and another 40 million for rural migrant workers. Price levels will also be stabilized and a balance struck between public revenues and international payments.
The industrial structure will be optimized and upgraded, and development of modern service industries will be quickened. The proportion of the service industry's added value to the domestic GDP and the proportion of jobs in the service industry to all jobs will increase by 3 and 4 percentage points, respectively. Overall, great strides will be made in domestic innovations.
The proportion of added value in the hi-tech industry and service industry will increase 4 percentage points in GDP. Domestic invention and patent application, as well as international scientific theses, will also increase substantially. And supports will be given to companies with independent intellectual property rights, well-known brands and international competency.
Sustainable development will be enhanced and the resource utilization ratio optimized substantially. Energy consumption per GDP unit will decrease 20 percent. Special attention will also be given to improving renewable energy and efficient coal use (China's main fossil fuel source), decreasing wasteful water consumption and major pollutants to purify air and water quality, cultivating farmland, containing environmental degradation, increasing carbon credit, combating desertification, controlling greenhouse gas emissions, and enhancing disaster relief efforts.
Basic public services will cover both urban and rural residents. This includes addressing overall poverty and greatly reducing the urban population living in poverty, as well as eliminating unsafe drinking water. A modern educational system will also be developed and perfected. Everyone will be entitled to basic medical health care in the new five-year plan period, and the social security net will be extended to cover more people. A new type of rural basic old-age insurance will cover more than 50 percent of all rural residents.
In the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China will enter a period of fast human development. Average urban disposable income and per-capita net income of rural residents will increase at an annual rate of 7 percent. The contribution of consumption to GDP growth will be enhanced, and the proportion of citizens' income to GNP will increase as consumption rises. Average life expectancy will reach 74, with human development index staying above 0.84.
DEDICATED TO SCIENCE: Researchers of the Beijing Genomics Institute examine genes under high-powered microscopes in Shenzhen, the institute's new headquarters (CHEN XIAOHUA)
Urban and rural regional development will be more coordinated. The widening gap between rural and urban residents will be effectively contained, as will the gap in public services to rural and urban areas. Urban-rural and regionally coordinated development mechanisms and major functional areas will take shape.
The socialist market economic system will be further perfected. Reform and institutional construction in such fields as administrative governance, state-owned and public undertakings, finance and taxation will make major breakthroughs. The price-forming mechanism of production factors and resources that can reflect market demand and supply, rareness of resources and environment damage costs will be improved. A modern society credit system will be in the main formed.
Socialist political and cultural construction will also witness new breakthroughs. Citizens' participation in politics will be expanded. The self-governance of villagers will be improved and direct suffrage of neighborhood committees in cities will be encouraged and are expected to rise above 75 percent by 2015. The cultural industry will be revitalized, with its proportion of GDP increasing gradually.
Compared with the 11th Five-Year Plan, what are the features of the major indexes in the 12th Five-Year Plan?
There might be 24 major indexes in the 12th Five-Year Plan—two more than the previous one. While I won't name them all, they have the following basic features.
First, the new plan is a combination of continuing with the old and innovating with the new. The 12th Five-Year Plan attaches great importance to the continuation of the 11th Five-Year Plan, but also makes some innovations and readjustments in accordance with developing situations. As a result, we suggested keeping nine of the previous indexes, adjusting six, and adopting nine new ones. The new indexes mainly focus on fields relating to public services, resources, environments and people's lives.
Second, top priority is being given to the public service index, supplemented by economic indexes, which reflects the enormous change and transition of the government function.
Third, priority is also being given to binding indexes, supplemented by predicted indexes, which reflect the government's determination to enhance public services.
Fourth, the indexes will be integrated with international standards. For instance, China will adopt the human development index as the most important index to measure whether or not it has entered a well-off society.
Fifth, the indexes can all be observed, measured, compared and evaluated and have clear time frames.
In addition, I suggest China further downplay and reduce economic indexes, while enhancing and increasing green development indexes as well as establishing a political accomplishment evaluation system focused on green development.
What measures should be adopted if China is going to achieve the economic targets in the 12th Five-Year Plan?
To ensure sound and fast economic development, China must shift its economic development pattern. It should rely less on export for growth and more on consumption and investment. The primary, secondary and tertiary industries will all become equal driving forces of economic development rather than relying solely on secondary or heavy industries. Economic growth will be mainly driven by technological progress, employee talent and management innovation instead of the old pattern of resource consumption.
Industrial optimization will be China's top priority.
To achieve this optimization, China will need to speed up developing a modern service industry. China will follow the direction of marketization, industrialization and socialization by promoting producer-oriented service industries, detailing and deepening divisions of labor, maximizing the proportion of added value of the service industry, and promoting jobs in the service industry. The proportion of added value of the knowledge-intensive service industry in GDP will be increased to above 13 percent by 2015 from 10.6 percent in 2007.
In the next five years, China will strive to develop its hi-tech industry. It will do this by supporting the formation of industrial clusters, raising its international competitiveness, and further developing its information technology, biology, new material, aerospace and marine industries. And a transformation will occur in the hi-tech industry, whereby China will change from its assembly line role for foreign companies into an indigenous research and development hub. In the coming years, Chinese businesses will edge their way into the global top 500, or top 2,000, companies.
Industrial optimization will also require China to develop its modern industrial system—which requires the integration of informationization and industrialization and making upgrades in technology. The country must also promote the green industry and speed up the development of this industry with low resource consumption, less environment pollution and sound economic profit while restricting high energy consumption industries (iron and steel, petrochemical and chemical) and abandoning outdated production methods. Modernizing the national infrastructure will also be a critical component to industrial optimization, and China will speed up construction of high-speed rail networks, expressways, intelligent power grids and natural resource networks.
A NEW LOOK: Haihe River, the mother river of Tianjin Municipality, has been remade into a beautiful scenic spot in the city (LIU HAIFENG)
Second, China will strive to be an innovation-oriented country.
Great importance will be placed on innovation, and China will invest heavily in an array of technologies to make major breakthroughs, including information, green energy, aerospace and maritime technology.
Through government support and investment, China will speed up the development of its national innovation system, with special assistance given to scientific research for technologies that will benefit the public servcie. A research fund will also be appropriated for different fields of science and technology.
China will also build up a technological innovation system led by enterprises and guided by the market—one that integrates production and research. The enterprises' role as the main body of innovation will be strengthened. Companies, scientific research institutes and universities will be encouraged to form joint entities to spur innovation. Intellectual property rights will also be promoted and perfected.
All this will be accomplished with a new, innovative talent pool that will need to be trained and recruited. These top-notch talents will be international visionaries. In the meantime, China will attract a large number of talents from abroad, as well as Chinese students studying overseas to come back to serve the country.
China will heavily promote green innovation and join other countries to stage a new green industrial revolution to cope with global climate change.
Third, China will take further steps in its economic opening up.
The traditional way of engaging in foreign trade will be changed, and China will optimize its export structure. China will expand imports of advanced technology, key equipment and spare parts, as well as energy and raw materials unavailable within the country.
China will strive to stabilize foreign countries' demand for Chinese products and support the foreign trade market, expand the market for traditional industries, actively foster new comparative advantages to participate in globalization, expand investment in overseas markets and encourage labor exports. All kinds of companies will be encouraged to go out and compete internationally to spur exports.
China will take an active role in the global economic integration. Its domestic regional planning will be connected with international regional economic cooperation. China will develop bilateral and multilateral economic and trade cooperation with all nations, actively participate in the promulgation of international trade and investment rules and regulations, strive to build new international economic order, implement free trade zone policies, and strengthen regional cooperation.
China will also work to reduce international economic risks, with focus on reducing export risks, perfecting the export credit insurance policy and expanding its coverage, while alleviating risks associated with foreign reserves. China will actively join international players to prevent risks in the global financial system, expand cross-border currency exchange coverage, and strive to promote the diversification of international reserve currencies.
Fourth, China will promote coordinated regional development.
All regions in China will see new rounds of development, especially the western region. China will revitalize its northeast industrial bases, stimulate the rise of the central part of the country and provide incentive for the eastern region so as to form a coordinated regional development pattern that is mutually beneficial with different characteristics.
Fifth, urban and rural integration will be promoted.
China will actively develop modern agriculture, ensure national food security and the effective supply of agricultural products. More central budget will cover rural areas to build up new socialist countryside. Reform of urban-rural integration will speed up.
What development features will China have during the 12th Five-Year Plan period?
China will still be in the primary stage of socialism during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. The principal contradiction in our society is still one between the ever-growing material and cultural needs of the people and the backwardness of social production. But some new features are emerging.
First, China will join the global middle-income grouping. From the perspective of the development level, China will ascend into the middle-income group from the lower middle-income one; from the perspective of purchasing power parity, the per-capita GDP will surpass the average level of the world and exceed the level of West European countries in the 1960s and 1970s.
Second, China will enter a high level of human development. The human development index (HDI) is a comprehensive index, including three aspects—economy, health and education. In 2008, China's HDI was 0.781, ranking 81st out of 177 countries. China's HDI is expected to reach 0.84 by 2015, entering a high level of human development (with HDI exceeding 0.8), ranking within the top 70 of the world.
Third, China will become an affluent, better-off society. The Engel coefficient, which gauges the standard of living of a country, will sink to around 37 percent in rural areas by 2015 from 43.7 percent in 2008, meaning the countryside will transform from a relatively comfortable society to an affluent one. In urban areas, the Engel coefficient will drop to 31 percent by 2015 from 37.9 percent in 2008, meaning the urban residents will also become more affluent.
Fourth, China will become an aging society with a booming population of younger people. China will face a daunting challenge of unsustainable population development as it will enter an aging society before it can get rich. In 2015, the labor force will peak at 1 billion with senior citizens above 65 years old accounting for 9.4 percent of the population. In 2010, on average, 9.1 persons of the labor force support one senior citizen, but by 2015, the ratio will be changed into 7.6:1.