美对华贸易逆差扩大 奥巴马选情受压
Bucking Trend, U.S.-China Trade Gap Grows
来源：华尔街日报   
        BEIJING—The U.S. trade deficit with China continues to grow even as the rest of the world runs a trade surplus with Beijing, potentially exacerbating a political problem for President Barack Obama as this year's campaign debate unfolds.          在其他经济体对中国存在贸易顺差之际，美国对中国的贸易逆差却在继续扩大。在今年美国总统竞选辩论逐步展开之际，这可能会令美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)面临的一个政治问题变得更加棘手。 
        Globally, China's thirst for imported oil and minerals to power its economy is catching up with demand for the textiles, shoes, computer goods and machinery that it exports. As a result, China's trade surplus with all of its international partners fell by half from 2008 to 2011 to $155.1 billion annually, according to data from China's General Administration of Customs. China ran trade deficits in 2011 with many of the big commodity exporters, including iron-ore heavyweights Australia and Brazil, and oil-export giant Saudi Arabia. A deficit of $48.6 billion with Australia in 2011 was more than three times as large as the 2008 mark.          全球来看，中国对用于推动其经济增长的进口石油和矿物的需求开始赶上全球对中国纺织品、鞋类、电脑产品和机械设备等出口产品的需求。结果是，据中国海关总署的数据，从2008年到2011年，中国对外年度贸易顺差总额收窄了一半，至1,551亿美元。2011年，中国对很多主要大宗商品出口国都存在贸易逆差，包括铁矿石出口大国澳大利亚和巴西，以及石油出口大国沙特阿拉伯。2011年，中澳贸易逆差达486亿美元，较2008年的水平高出两倍以上。 
        But Americans keep buying low-end consumer goods from China, as they have for more than a decade. China's exports of textiles, clothes and shoes to the U.S. in 2011 were up almost 50% from 2008. On top of that, plenty of computer goods and other machinery are assembled in China and shipped to the U.S.—meaning that they are counted as Chinese-made goods even if much of the value of the machinery is produced elsewhere.          不过，美国人仍像他们10多年来一直做的那样，继续从中国购买低端消费品。2011年，中国对美国纺织品、服装和鞋类出口额较2008年增长了近50%。此外，大量电脑产品和其他机械设备在中国组装，然后被运往美国，这就意味着即使这些机械设备的大部分价值是在中国以外的地区创造的，这些产品仍被算作中国生产的商品。 
        The U.S. has ratcheted up exports to China, too. Sales of vehicles—including airplanes, a segment in which U.S. firms have a technological edge over Chinese manufacturers—roughly doubled to $12.4 billion in 2011 from 2008. Sales of soybeans have also risen, as Chinese households can afford a higher-protein diet. But the U.S. has few of the hard commodities China needs to fuel its industrial engine, and U.S. exports are still dwarfed by imports coming in the other direction across the Pacific.          美国也一直在扩大对华出口。从2008年到2011年，美国对华交通工具（包括飞机）出口额增至124亿美元，增长了约一倍。在飞机制造领域，美国企业比中国企业拥有更强的技术优势。美国对华大豆出口也在增加，原因是中国家庭能够负担得起蛋白质含量更高的饮食。不过，美国几乎没有中国所需的用来推动其工业引擎的大宗商品，此外，与中国对美出口相比，美国对华出口仍相形见绌。 
        As a result, the annual U.S. trade deficit with China has increased 18% since 2008 to $202 billion—an amount substantially larger than China's global surplus. The U.S.-China trade pattern continued in the first half of the year, with the U.S. trade deficit with China climbing 17% to $99.7 billion over the period.          结果就造成，自2008年以来，美中年度贸易逆差扩大了18%，至2,020亿美元，大大高于中国对外贸易顺差总额。今年上半年，美中贸易延续了这一模式。期间美中贸易逆差攀升17%，至997亿美元。 
        The U.S. isn't alone in running a deficit with China. In 2011, the European Union bought $144.8 billion more than it sold from China. Strong exports of machinery from Germany, which runs a trade surplus with China, helped hold the overall European deficit down.          美国并非唯一一个对华存在贸易逆差的经济体。2011年，欧盟对华贸易逆差为1,448亿美元。德国对华强劲的机械设备出口帮助拉低了欧盟对华总体贸易逆差。德国对中国存在贸易顺差。 
        During the first six months of 2012, China's overall trade surplus also increased, up to $69.9 billion from $46 billion in the first half of 2011, in a break from the pattern of flat and shrinking surpluses in the years after the financial crisis. But unlike in past years, the first half's trade surplus isn't a sign of Chinese economic strength. Rather, Chinese exports and import growth both slowed sharply from the year earlier, as China's economy cooled and a contracting euro-zone economy took the heat out of external demand.          2012年上半年，中国总体贸易顺差也有所扩大，同2011年上半年的460亿美元相比，今年同期的贸易顺差为699亿美元，打破了金融危机之后几年中贸易顺差持平甚至收窄的模式。不过，与前几年不同的是，今年上半年的贸易顺差并不表明中国经济实力强大，而是因为随着中国经济冷却、欧元区经济收缩导致进口需求疲弱，中国进出口增长均较上年同期大幅放缓。 
        For President Obama, the U.S. trade deficit already represents a political problem, particularly because his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, has made getting tougher with Beijing a centerpiece of his international economic platform.          对奥巴马来说，美中贸易逆差已经带来了一个政治问题，特别是因为他的挑战者、共和党总统候选人罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)把对北京采取更强硬立场作为自己国际经济纲领的核心内容。 
        A perception that the U.S. is faring more poorly than are other countries in its trade relationship with China could add to the political problem by giving more ammunition to Mr. Romney and his argument that the U.S. is being taken advantage of by Beijing. Such a trend also could prompt the administration to find other ways to get tougher with China before November.          有一种看法是，在与中国的贸易关系方面，美国的表现不及其它国家。此看法可能会加剧这一政治问题，因为它给罗姆尼及其北京占了美国便宜这个论点提供了更多弹药。这种趋势可能还会促使美国政府在11月以前寻找其它对中国更加强硬的办法。 
        In a campaign speech in Maumee, Ohio, last week, Mr. Obama noted a new trade action he brought against China over automobiles and stressed the importance of exports. "I want goods shipped around the world, stamped with 'Made in America,' " he said.          奥巴马上周在俄亥俄州莫米市(Maumee)发表竞选演说提到了他就汽车产品针对中国提起的一桩诉讼案，同时强调了出口的重要性。奥巴马说，我希望运往世界各地的商品上面都印着“美国制造”的字样。 
        Since the beginning of the year, the administration has complained to the World Trade Organization about what the U.S. contends are unfair Chinese trade practices involving Chinese imports of U.S. cars, steel and poultry. It also has hit Chinese companies with duties for selling goods at below-market prices, including Chinese-made wind-power and solar equipment.          年初以来，美国政府不断向世界贸易组织(WTO)投诉，称中国在进口美国汽车、钢铁和禽类方面存在不公平贸易做法。此外，美国政府还对那些以低于市场价格销售产品的中国公司征收惩罚性关税，包括中国产的风能和太阳能设备。 
        "We...must create confidence that China's predatory, protectionist and unfair trade practices will be challenged," said Michael Wessel, a commissioner on Congress's U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.          美国国会的美中经济与安全评估委员会(U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission)成员韦塞尔(Michael Wessel)说，我们必须建立信心，相信中国那些带有掠夺性、保护主义色彩且不公平的贸易做法将受到挑战。 
        But trade actions affect just a tiny percentage of U.S.-China trade, said Simon Evenett, a trade specialist at University of St. Gallen in Switzerland. Three U.S. dumping cases involving wind power, steel and certain chemicals, for instance, covered $380 million of Chinese imports, he calculates. "Eliminating these imports entirely would cut the U.S. bilateral deficit with China by 0.13%, which is peanuts," he said.          但瑞士圣加仑大学(University of St. Gallen)贸易专家艾弗内特(Simon Evenett)说，贸易诉讼仅对很小一部分美中贸易有影响。据他计算，美国针对中国输美的风能设备、钢铁和特定化学品发起的三个倾销案影响了价值3.8亿美元的中国产品。艾弗内特说，即使完全取消这些产品的进口，也不过是将美国对华贸易逆差削减0.13%，实在微不足道。 
        A Romney White House could have a similarly difficult time. When Harvard economist Greg Mankiw, a top Romney adviser, was chief White House economist during the administration of George W. Bush, he testified before a House committee on China trade and didn't hold out much hope for a big turnaround in the then-much-smaller U.S.-China trade deficit.          若罗姆尼入主白宫，他的日子可能同样不好过。哈佛大学经济学家、罗姆尼高级顾问曼昆(Greg Mankiw)在小布什(George W. Bush)政府担任白宫首席经济学家时，曾在白宫一委员会就中国贸易问题举行的听证会上作证，他对当时规模还小得多的美中贸易逆差出现重大转机没有抱多大指望。 
        The U.S. economy relied on low-cost imports from low-wage economies, Mr. Mankiw said in 2003, so "our imports from China replace imports from other countries rather than add to total imports."          曼昆2003年曾说，美国经济依赖于低工资经济体输美的廉价产品，所以美国从中国的进口挤占了从别国的进口，进口总量并没有增加。 
        The Obama administration has also regularly pressed China to revalue its currency, and helped convince Beijing to let the yuan appreciate against the dollar in June 2010. Since then the yuan has risen about 7.5% against the dollar. On a trade weighted basis, and taking account of inflation, it has risen slightly more—8.6% from June 2010 to May 2012, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements.          奥巴马政府也定期向中国施压，要求后者对人民币的币值进行重估，并在一定程度上成功劝说北京在2010年6月允许人民币对美元升值。此后，人民币对美元累计升值约7.5%。国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)的数据显示，2010年6月至2012年5月，经通胀因素调整后的人民币贸易加权汇率升值8.6%，比7.5%还要略高。 
        But the appreciation of the currency has largely halted since the beginning of the year as the Chinese economy slowed sharply. In the first quarter of 2012, China grew at 8.1% year-over-year, its slowest rate of expansion since the spring of 2009 during the global financial crisis. Data on the second quarter, slated for release Friday, is expected to show the pace of growth slowing further. Halting the rise of the yuan is a way for the Chinese government to help its exporters, and few China economists expect Beijing to reverse that policy any time soon.          但今年初以来，随着中国经济大幅放缓，人民币汇率基本上是在原地踏步。2012年第一季度，中国经济同比增长8.1%，是2009年春季以来的最慢增速。那时全球金融危机正在肆虐。定于周五发布的第二季度数据料将显示，中国经济增速将进一步放缓。叫停人民币升值是中国政府帮助本国出口商的一个办法，几乎没有经济学家预计北京方面会于近期逆转这一政策。